Have the Protests Failed?

The news magazine Time always selects the Person of the Year at the end of December. This person’s picture is shown on the magazine's cover and he or she is the topic of the feature article. Time has honored politicians, scientists, and sometimes even artists in the past. At the end of 2011, a concealed face appeared on the magazine's cover: “The Protester.” This choice was supported by many good reasons because 2011 was the year of worldwide protests – however, it is neither the first nor will it be the last in the annals of humanity.

 But discontent with the existing conditions became the predominant topic around the world during the past year. The uprisings of the Arab Spring in Tunisia and Egypt at the beginning of 2011 were followed by unrest in Yemen, Syria, and Libya. Over the summer, the camps of the Indignados – which means the outraged – emerged in Spain. Thereafter, many thousands of protesters congregated at Zuccotti Park in Lower Manhattan for a peaceful attack on Wall Street. Citizens protested against Putin in Moscow and trouble was also brewing in Switzerland, Germany, England, Nigeria, Israel, and even remote Mongolia. Citizens' groups, demonstrations, and the demands of protest movements became the topic of the day. The political actors were forced to take notice, no matter whether they wanted to or not.

Different Grievances

There are obviously major differences between the causes and circumstances of these mostly non-violent revolts. Economic issues following the onset of the crisis in 2008 and the necessary austerity measures that followed were the main reason in many countries. The fact that the super-rich have become richer and richer over the last years and decades while the middle class and the weak social classes deteriorated was an additional factor. Many Americans, as well as citizens of other countries, could no longer afford to make their mortgage payments and became homeless. This situation provoked the demand for more social justice. Especially among the younger generation, a high rate of unemployment is the main motivation for protests in Europe and the Arab world in particularly. In Russia and elsewhere, political demands were predominant as the outcry for more democracy and less corruption.

It is too early for a final judgment but not for a preliminary assessment. Two conclusions suggest themselves: The first is the painful realization that these movements have failed in their first attempt almost everywhere. Initiatives with a local character such as in Stuttgart (Stuttgart 21) where citizens protested against modifications to the central train station and encroachments on the adjacent park are exceptions. On the other hand, we can say with reasonable certainty that the grievances that have caused the protest movements will not disappear, and new and possibly stronger protests could be the result.

Why did a majority of the movements fail in their first attempt? The reasons varied from country to country. Most foreign observers overestimated the power of the revolutionary movements and ignored the objectively unfavorable conditions in the Middle East. These observers came to the same conclusion as Goethe did at the Battle of Valmy in the year 1792: “From this place, and from this day forth begins a new era in the history of the world.” In reality, these movements were about the removal of corrupt and politically ineffective dictatorships that had been in power for too long. But how could people even speak of democratic revolutions in poor countries in which authoritarian structures and reactionary ideologies were deeply engrained and without any democratic tradition? As a consequence, the inevitable outcome of relatively democratic elections was the victory of theocratic parties that were somewhat more moderate here and more extreme there. The situation of women, minorities, and secular forces has become worse compared to the former, hated regimes and not just Egypt keeps moving closer to national bankruptcy.

Fragmented Interests

The situation was different and initially more promising in America. Wall Street had become the epitome of greed coupled with incompetence, and the slogan “We Are the 99 Percent” was not too far from the social reality. President Barack Obama and many other people from the establishment showed solidarity with the movement. With clear demands and charismatic leadership, the Occupy movement could have exerted significant influence on the political parties and Congress.

But what happened? Instead of focusing on the core problems, the influence of all kinds of sectarians on the movement grew. Their demands ranged from pacifist propaganda and better treatment of illegal immigrants to more transparency (with Wikileaks as the role model) and environmental issues. Even anti-Semitic remarks surfaced For example, Kalle Lasn – the ideologist of the Canadian group Adbusters (which had inspired Occupy Wall Street) – stated: “Why won’t anyone say they are Jewish…” This led to a fragmentation of forces and deterred many citizens whose support could have been gained. Even the communists acted more prudently during the period of the People’s Front by de-emphasizing separating issues and focusing on commonalities with other leftist forces.

Similar to the Middle East, the strength of the democratic movement in Russia was grossly overestimated. There was certainly growing discontent in the new middle class and the intelligentsia (intellectual professional groups in Russia). Furthermore, the personal popularity of Vladimir Putin had diminished. However, it soon became clear that the protesters’ demands for democratic reforms were rather secondary for the majority of the citizens. They want a strong, stable government and believe that this is hardly possible within a democratic framework. Therefore, Putin has little to fear as long as Russia is able to sell its oil for 100 dollars per barrel on the global market and avoids financial catastrophe. In a certain sense, the dilemma in the Middle East is similar to that of Russia. The protagonists of the Arab Spring wanted more freedom and more democracy but the large majority is not interested in this.

Looking Ahead to the Future

What will the future bring? Casino (and vampire) capitalism has been discredited. But where is the shining model for the path into a better future? It is not the formerly communist countries of Russia and China where the discrepancy between rich and poor is even greater than in the West. And not in other emerging countries such as Brazil or India (the other two members of BRIC) or South Africa, where this is also the case.

When reforms in the existing system are not possible, the entire system must be liquidated as a result – according to the anti-authoritarian ideologists of the protest movement. They believe that the mass media dumbs down the masses so that they cannot recognize their actual interests. This approach suggests Marcuse and the protest movement of 1967/68. However, the majority of people are not against the entire system but only its excesses. Why is a revolution necessary – and should democracy also be abolished? Or do people think that the Muslim Brotherhood and Mahmud Ahmadinejad will be more successful (as they claim) in establishing a system of social equality than Marx?

In addition to these conflicts between rich and poor (which would have been called “class warfare” in earlier times), other problems are also facing the world. Birth rates are decreasing everywhere, and a conflict between young and old is arising due to the aging population because fewer young people must support more and more senior citizens.

It is possible to resolve all of these conflicts. However, we are just at the beginning of a development that will probably last for generations to come. Maybe, with some luck and insight, it will progress without severe shocks until a new equilibrium is established. “If it wouldn’t be for hope,” is a line from a chanson of the 1930s performed by Joseph Schmidt, a song that has unfortunately been forgotten.

Walter Laqueur, born in 1921 in Wroclaw, continues his long and fertile career as a historian and author in London and Washington.